2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks: Surprising predictions from model that's called 16 majors
CBS Sports
by
Daniel Lewis
March 4, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge is set to feature a star-studded lineup of top PGA Tour players, with Scottie Scheffler as the defending champion and favorite at +310 odds. SportsLine's proprietary model, known for its accuracy in predicting major tournaments, has simulated the event 10,000 times and provided surprising insights into potential winners and underperformers. While Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are strong favorites, the model highlights Xander Schauffele as a golfer to fade despite his status as a two-time major winner. On the other hand, Si Woo Kim is projected to make a strong run at the title, despite being a longshot at +2700 odds.
The tournament marks the return of nearly all top-10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking, making it one of the most competitive events of the Florida Swing. Scheffler's dominance so far this season has solidified his position as the top favorite, while McIlroy's recent form and reputation as a major champion make him a close contender. Other notable favorites include Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Collin Morikawa, and Xander Schauffele, who are all priced between +2000 to +2500 odds.
The model's predictions also reveal some unexpected outcomes. Despite Schauffele's success in majors, the model suggests he may struggle to finish in the top 10 at Bay Hill, given his inconsistent performance this year. In contrast, Si Woo Kim, who has shown strong form early in the season, is projected to make a significant impact, even though he starts as a longshot
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 3/4/2026