2026 Daytona 500 longshot picks, predictions, odds, free bets: Model backing Kyle Busch for NASCAR at Daytona
CBS Sports
by
Owen OBrien
February 14, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The 2026 Daytona 500, NASCAR's season-opening marquee event, is set to take place at Daytona International Speedway on Sunday, Feb. 15. While favorites like Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Denny Hamlin are expected to draw significant betting action, SportsLine's advanced computer model has identified several longshot picks with potential value for bettors. Among these, Kyle Busch stands out as a top contender despite never winning the Daytona 500. With 14-1 odds, the model highlights his extensive experience at the track, including five runner-up finishes and one overall victory in Cup Series events at Daytona.
Busch's 63 career NASCAR Cup Series wins, the most among active drivers, further bolster his case. His nine top-five finishes in 41 starts at Daytona make him a formidable longshot bet. Additionally, the model projects value in Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, both of whom have shown consistent performance in recent years. Bell, who finished fifth last season before a late-race crash, leads 42 laps over the past three Daytona 500 runs and is tied for third in Cup Series victories. Briscoe, meanwhile, boasts two top-five finishes and four strong starts at the track, including a fourth-place finish in 2023.
Mike McClure, a renowned DFS player with $2 million in winnings, developed this predictive model by simulating every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times. This approach has proven successful, nailing 29 winners since 2021 and delivering significant returns for those following his picks. For bettors looking to capitalize on these longshot predictions, SportsLine offers insights into the model's projected leaderboard, providing a strategic edge in what is often a highly competitive event.
The Daytona 500 is not just a race but a pivotal betting opportunity for NASCAR fans and sports enthusiasts alike.
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/14/2026