3 lessons from investing’s ‘moneyball’ moment

Fortune

by David Booth

February 25, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The article explores three key lessons from the "moneyball" moment in investing, drawing parallels between the data-driven approach of Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane and the University of Chicago's pioneering research on stock market returns. Just as Beane used statistical analysis to颠覆 traditional baseball strategies, researchers at the University of Chicago revolutionized investment practices by compiling reliable stock market data starting in 1926. This marked a turning point, revealing that stocks had higher long-term returns than previously believed and challenging conventional wisdom about investing. The first lesson is that insiders don't always have an edge. Before the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) provided comprehensive historical data, investment professionals couldn't reliably assess market performance. Analysis of mutual fund performance showed that they often underperformed simple, passive strategies like buying and holding a diversified portfolio. This insight democratizes investing, suggesting that average investors can achieve strong returns without relying on expert insights. The second lesson highlights the importance of structural factors enabling long-term growth. The U.S. stock market's 10% annualized return over a century is driven by robust market structures: enforceable agreements, investor protections, transparency, and competitive markets. Companies' ability to access capital for growth through stock issuance also contributes to sustained returns. Finally, the article emphasizes that investing success doesn't require outsmarting the market. By leveraging marketlike portfolios such as index funds, investors can capitalize on collective wisdom and achieve strong returns without complex strategies or insider knowledge. This approach makes investing accessible to all, fostering financial opportunities for individuals worldwide.

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Originally published on Fortune on 2/25/2026