50% of Bitcoin's past 24 months ended in gains: Economist

CoinTelegraph

by Ciaran Lyons

February 22, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Bitcoin's performance over the past 24 months has shown significant promise, with half of those months delivering positive returns. Economist Timothy Peterson highlights this trend, suggesting that there is an 88% chance Bitcoin will be higher than its current price by December. His analysis focuses on identifying inflection points through the number of positive months in any given two-year period. While Bitcoin has seen gains in six out of twelve months each year since 2025, the volatility underscores the need for a cautious yet optimistic approach to investing. Peterson’s metric aims to quantify the likelihood of future price movements by examining historical trends. By counting the number of positive months over a two-year span, he identifies potential turning points in Bitcoin’s trajectory. This method has been particularly useful in gauging upward momentum, as seen in 2025 when Bitcoin achieved gains in January, April through July, and September, while the remaining months saw declines. The economist’s optimistic outlook is not without criticism. Some analysts argue that relying solely on monthly returns may oversimplify the complexities of cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are influenced by a variety of factors, including regulatory changes, macroeconomic trends, and investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, Peterson’s statistical approach provides a unique perspective on the asset’s long-term potential. For crypto enthusiasts and investors, this analysis offers valuable insights into Bitcoin’s resilience and growth prospects. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the data suggests that Bitcoin may continue to navigate its volatile journey with upward momentum. For those tracking the cryptocurrency market, understanding these trends can help inform investment decisions and risk management strategies in an ever-evolving landscape.

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Originally published on CoinTelegraph on 2/22/2026