A Former Top Trump Official Is Going After Prediction Markets
Wired
by Kate KnibbsMarch 2, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Mick Mulvaney, a former top Trump official, is leading a new coalition, Gambling Is Not Investing, which argues that prediction markets should be regulated under state gambling laws. Drawing from his background as a poker tournament winner and advocate for sports betting, Mulvaney compares prediction markets to illegal gambling, stating they "look like a duck, sound like a duck, and act like a duck." This stance is part of a growing Republican effort to classify these platforms as gambling, with figures like former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie also opposing the current federal approach.
The battle over prediction market regulation is heating up on both state and federal levels. While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees these markets as derivatives, states argue that they violate gambling laws. Lawsuits against companies like Kalshi highlight the tension between federal jurisdiction and state regulations. Mulvaney criticizes the CFTC for being unprepared to handle this role, while the agency defends its authority under the Biden administration.
The political divide is deepening, with 23 Democratic Senators urging the CFTC to allow court cases to proceed, while the White House appears more open to prediction markets, even fining违规 platforms like Polymarket. This shift aligns with Trump family ties to the industry, including plans for Truth Social's own prediction market and Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory roles.
For tech readers, this debate matters as it shapes the future of fintech innovation and regulatory frameworks. The outcome could determine whether prediction markets thrive or face stricter limitations, impacting startups and investors alike. With Mulvaney's coalition gaining traction, the Republican push for guardrails suggests a potential shift in how these platforms are classified and regulated.
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Originally published on Wired on 3/2/2026