A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them

The Guardian World

by Written by Shaun Walker

February 20, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The article reveals how the CIA and MI6 obtained critical intelligence about Russia's plans to invade Ukraine, only for their warnings to be largely ignored by European leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Drawing on over 100 interviews with senior officials, the piece details how US and British spies gathered information through sources like double agents and cyber espionage, providing a clear roadmap of Russia's intentions months before the invasion began in February 2022. Despite this, most European leaders dismissed the warnings as exaggerated or unreliable, leaving Ukraine unprepared for the assault. The article highlights the failure of international intelligence-sharing mechanisms to convince key stakeholders of the threat. While the US and UK took steps to bolster Ukraine's defenses and warned NATO allies, many European governments remained skeptical, believing that Russia would not risk a full-scale invasion due to economic or political constraints. This disconnect underscores the challenges of persuading leaders during times of geopolitical uncertainty, where misinformation, miscommunication, and differing priorities can undermine collective action. As the fourth anniversary of the invasion approaches, the article reflects on the lessons learned from this intelligence failure. It emphasizes how the dismissal of warnings contributed to Ukraine's initial lack of preparedness and the broader implications for Europe's security architecture. The piece also raises questions about the role of spy agencies in shaping policy decisions and the need for better coordination among allies to prevent similar misunderstandings in the future. Ultimately, the article serves as a cautionary tale about the perils of ignoring intelligence and the importance of acting on warnings from trusted sources. For readers interested in global politics and security, it offers valuable insights into how intelligence failures can shape the course of history—and why understanding them is crucial for navigating today's increasingly uncertain world.

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Originally published on The Guardian World on 2/20/2026