AI capex and the ‘wealth effect’ from tech stocks (like Nvidia) now drive one-third of U.S. GDP growth, top analysts say

Fortune

by Jim Edwards

February 26, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The U.S. economy is increasingly reliant on AI capital expenditures (AI capex) and the "wealth effect" from tech stock gains to drive growth. According to a recent analysis by Pantheon Macroeconomics, these factors accounted for nearly one-third of headline GDP growth in Q4 2025. AI capex alone contributed around 20% of the 2.2% year-over-year increase in GDP, while the surge in tech stock values—estimated at $3.8 trillion in 2025—boosted consumer spending by 0.4 percentage points through the wealth effect. This interplay between AI investment and rising asset values has become a critical driver of economic activity. The analysis highlights how investor confidence in the AI narrative is crucial to maintaining this growth momentum. If doubts about AI's potential emerged, it could lead to significant declines in both stock prices and investment spending, leaving the broader economy vulnerable. However, recent data suggests that the AI-driven economy remains resilient despite concerns raised by reports like Citrini Research's prediction of mass unemployment by 2028. Tech stocks have shown strength, with Nvidia's Q4 earnings beating expectations and its shares rising 1.44% following CEO Jensen Huang's positive outlook. Despite these challenges, Pantheon notes that AI adoption has accelerated productivity in sectors like tech, offsetting broader economic slowdowns. While AI hasn't yet translated into headline productivity gains, it is making

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Originally published on Fortune on 2/26/2026