AI is everywhere except in the data, suggesting it will enhance labor in some sectors rather than replace workers in all sectors, top economist says
Fortune
by Jason MaFebruary 14, 2026
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AI's impact on the economy is still unclear, as it hasn't yet shown up in macroeconomic data, according to Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global. While some argue that AI could revolutionize industries and boost GDP growth by 5% to 10%, Slok suggests that its effects may take time to materialize due to what he calls a "J-curve" effect. Unlike the computer revolution of the 1980s, which quickly showed up in productivity statistics, AI's influence is more subtle and might enhance labor in certain sectors rather than replace workers entirely.
Slok points out that current data on employment, productivity, and inflation don't reflect significant signs of AI adoption. Even among S&P 500 companies outside the tech sector, there's little evidence of AI-driven changes in profit margins or earnings. This contrasts with the hype surrounding AI's potential to transform industries like wealth management, insurance, trucking, and logistics, where fears of disruption have already led to stock sell-offs.
Economists predict modest impacts from AI on total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates annual gains of just 0.1-0.2 percentage points, translating to a cumulative boost of 1.
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Originally published on Fortune on 2/14/2026