Ali Larijani is an increasingly plausible heir in Iran
The Economist
February 26, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Ali Larijani is increasingly seen as a potential successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, despite formal procedures that suggest otherwise. While Article 111 of the Iranian constitution outlines a leadership council to take over in case of Khamenei’s incapacitation or death, Larijani has been quietly amassing significant influence. As Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, he is shaping Iran's strategic decisions and is often referred to as Khamenei’s closest confidant, a "gray cardinal" behind the scenes.
Larijani’s rise to prominence can be attributed to his ability to navigate Iran’s complex political landscape and consolidate power. He has effectively filled the void left by Qassem Suleimani, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who was assassinated by the U.S. in 2020. Larijani’s influence extends beyond domestic affairs; he plays a key role in shaping Iran's foreign policy and security strategy, particularly in matters related to its regional interests and relations with international actors.
However, not everyone is convinced of his legitimacy. Hardliners within Iran’s political establishment have always been skeptical of Larijani, questioning his loyalty and suitability for the role. This skepticism underscores the fragility of Iran's leadership structure and raises concerns about potential power struggles should Khamenei step down or pass away. Such a transition could significantly impact Iran's domestic stability and international relations, with implications for global business and economic ties.
For businesses and investors closely monitoring Iran’s political developments, Larijani’s growing influence is crucial to understanding the country’s future trajectory. His role in shaping Iran’s strategic decisions will likely have far-reaching consequences for its economy, regional security dynamics, and relationships with external partners. As tensions between Iran and the West persist, the potential for instability and uncertainty in the region remains a key risk factor for businesses operating in or considering expansion into Iran.
Verticals
businesseconomics
Originally published on The Economist on 2/26/2026