An accountant won a big jackpot on Kalshi by betting against DOGE | TechCrunch

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by Julie Bort

February 25, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

An accountant named Alan Cole made a life-changing decision when he bet against DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) on the prediction market platform Kalshi, winning over $470,300 after the U.S. federal budget showed an increase in spending. Cole, an international tax expert, wagered his entire life savings—over $342,000—to take the counter bet that DOGE would not significantly reduce federal spending within a year. His confidence stemmed from his understanding of government spending trends and the belief that federal obligations and debt would prevent quick reductions in budget size. Kalshi is a unique platform where users can trade contracts based on real-world events. In this case, the contract centered on whether DOGE could effectively reduce federal spending by 2025. While Elon Musk’s fans drove up the value of the contract believing in DOGE’s potential, Cole saw an opportunity to bet against it. He slowly accumulated a 3% stake in the $12 million market, making strategic hedging bets along the way. When the government released the 2025 spending report showing increased federal outlays compared to 2024, Cole’s counter bet paid off handsomely. This story highlights the growing popularity of prediction markets like Kalshi and their potential for data-driven investing. While platforms like Robinhood and others focus on traditional trading, Kalshi offers a different approach by allowing users to trade outcomes tied to real-world events. For tech enthusiasts and fintech followers, this kind of innovative betting mechanism raises interesting questions about the future of investing and decision-making based on collective predictions. Cole’s success also underscores the importance of data-driven insights in financial decisions. His background as an accountant gave him a unique perspective on government spending trends, allowing him to identify an opportunity others might have overlooked. As prediction markets continue to evolve, stories like Cole’s will likely spark further interest in their potential

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Originally published on TechCrunch on 2/25/2026