Apollo CEO Marc Rowan predicts a private markets 'shakeout'
Business Insider
March 3, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Marc Rowan, CEO of private credit giant Apollo Global Management, predicts a significant shakeout in the private markets due to global instability, inflation, and technological advancements. He warns that this shift will distinguish skilled risk managers from weaker players, with many firms potentially struggling or exiting the market. The private credit sector is already facing challenges, including declining stock prices for major companies like Apollo and Blue Owl, amid concerns over liquidity and AI-driven disruptions in industries such as software.
Rowan highlights that while structural factors once supported growth in private markets, future success will depend on individual firms' risk management and diversification strategies. He emphasizes the importance of avoiding concentration in any single industry, especially as technological changes disrupt sectors like software. Unlike public asset managers, private credit firms cannot scale indiscriminately; they must carefully originate investments to avoid overextending their portfolios.
The shakeout is expected to lead to consolidation rather than mega-mergers, with stronger players likely acquiring or outperforming weaker ones. Michael Arougheti of Ares Management agrees, noting that diversification will be key for survival and growth. His firm has already pursued acquisitions in areas like secondaries and infrastructure management, signaling a trend toward strategic consolidation in the industry.
This shakeout matters to investors and business leaders as it underscores the evolving risks and opportunities in private markets. While some firms may struggle under pressure, others with strong risk management and diversified portfolios are poised to thrive. The broader impact will shape the future of alternative investments, emphasizing adaptability and resilience in an increasingly volatile landscape.
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Originally published on Business Insider on 3/3/2026