Are we having the right debate about population growth?

Sydney Morning Herald

by Alan Duncan

February 24, 2026

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Are we having the right debate about population growth?

Australia’s ongoing debate about population growth is often misdirected, argues Cameron Myles of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre. The issue isn’t whether Australia’s population is growing too fast—it’s whether we’re planning for it properly. Government projections have consistently underestimated population figures, leading to housing shortages, rising rents, and infrastructure strain. These faulty estimates result in policies that fail to meet demand, creating unnecessary pressure on cities and public services. The narrative of “too fast” growth arises when housing supply can’t keep up with the growing population. However, migration—key to Australia’s economic growth—is often unfairly blamed for these challenges. Over the past two decades, migration has contributed around half of the country’s economic growth, supporting industries from construction to healthcare and stabilizing the labor market. Reducing migration could harm economic prosperity, as it provides a steady workforce and boosts productivity. The debate is further complicated by declining birth rates in Australia. Unlike previous generations, Australians are having fewer children later in life, or choosing not to have them at all. This structural shift poses long-term challenges for the workforce, tax base, and essential services like healthcare and education. While family policies can help mitigate these effects, they’re unlikely to reverse this trend. Ultimately, the problem lies in how we plan for growth—not the growth itself. Accurate projections and forward-thinking policies are essential to building sustainable cities and economies. Without addressing these issues, Australia risks economic instability and reduced quality of life for its citizens. The solution isn’t to slow population growth, but to ensure we’re prepared for it.

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Originally published on Sydney Morning Herald on 2/24/2026