Arkansas vs. Florida odds, prediction: 2026 college basketball picks for February 28 from proven model
CBS Sports
by
Daniel Kohn
February 28, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The highly anticipated college basketball matchup between the seventh-ranked Florida Gators and the 20th-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks on February 28 is shaping up to be a crucial game in the SEC regular-season race. With both teams looking to strengthen their standings, the clash at Exactech Arena in Gainesville could determine who leads the conference. Florida enters the game as defending national champions and 9.5-point favorites, while Arkansas aims to upset and secure a share of the title. The model predicts a low-scoring game, with an under projection of 168.5 points, favoring the Gators but highlighting a competitive matchup.
Florida’s home-court advantage is significant, as they’ve won 12 out of 13 games there this season. Their balanced attack and strong defensive performance have them tied at the top of the SEC standings. Meanwhile, Arkansas, despite their road struggles (4-5 against ranked opponents), has shown resilience under coach John Calipari. Key players like Darius Acuff Jr., projected to score 19.3 points, could make a difference for the Razorbacks. Florida’s lineup, led by Thomas Haugh’s expected 17.5 points, looks equally formidable.
The game’s betting lines reflect Florida’s dominance, with a spread of -9.5 and moneyline odds of -524 for the Gators. SportsLine’s model, known for its accuracy, projects the Under (168.5) to hit in over 50% of simulations. This suggests a defensive-focused contest, where both teams prioritize containment and execution. Florida’s ability to control the pace and limit turnovers will be crucial. Arkansas, with their dynamic offense, must capitalize on open looks and exploit mismatches.
The matchup matters because it’s a pivotal game in the SEC standings. A Florida win would solidify their position at the top, while an upset by Arkansas could shift the balance of power in the conference. Fans and bettors
Verticals
sports
Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/28/2026