Bracketology Bubble Watch: Indiana's brutal loss to Northwestern drops Hoosiers to Next Four Out
CBS Sports
by
David Cobb
February 25, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Indiana’s hopes for an NCAA Tournament bid took a significant hit after their 72-68 loss to Northwestern at home. The defeat marked Indiana’s third straight loss and dropped them to the “Next Four Out” category in the latest bracketology projections. While the previous two losses on the road against Illinois and Purdue had minimal impact, this loss, coming against a Northwestern team now inside the top 75 of the NET rankings, dealt a substantial blow to Indiana’s resume. Their WAB (Wins Above Bubble) ranking fell from No. 43 to No. 48, a metric closely monitored by the selection committee.
The game was particularly damaging because it came at home and against a team that had previously been outside the top 75 but has since climbed in rank. This shift means the loss carries more weight than it initially seemed. The Hoosiers now face increased pressure to secure strong results in their remaining games, starting with Sunday’s crucial matchup against No. 13 Michigan State at home. A win here could help Indiana move back into a safer position on the bubble.
Tuesday’s action also saw other key developments across college basketball. TCU stayed firmly in the “Last Four In” by defeating Arizona State, while Missouri earned its fifth Quad 1 win with a victory over Tennessee. Conversely, New Mexico’s loss to Nevada hurt their chances, and USC continued its slide with an 81-62 loss at UCLA. These results highlight the fluid nature of bubble dynamics as teams jostle for position in the final weeks before selections are made.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, several high-stakes games will shape the landscape further. Texas faces Florida, Ohio State takes on Iowa, and Texas A&M battles Arkansas. Each of these matchups could significantly alter the WAB standings and a team’s bubble status. For instance, a win for Ohio State over Iowa could boost their WAB ranking by 3-6 spots, potentially moving them closer to safety.
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/25/2026