Bracketology Bubble Watch: Ohio State on NCAA Tournament cut line for Big Ten battle at Michigan State
CBS Sports
by
David Cobb
February 22, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Ohio State finds itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble as it prepares for a critical road game against Michigan State. The Buckeyes are currently projected as one of the "Last Four In" teams in the CBS Sports Bracketology model, and their upcoming clash with the Spartans could be pivotal in solidifying their chances of securing an at-large bid to the tournament. A win over Michigan State, especially in East Lansing, would not only provide a much-needed Quad 1 victory but also bolster Ohio State's resume, which currently lacks any Quad 1 wins this season.
The game carries significant weight for both teams and the Big Ten conference as a whole. For Ohio State, the stakes are high after a subpar performance in the top quadrants of the NCAA's evaluation system (NET). The Buckeyes enter Sunday with just four Quad 1/2 victories, leaving their tournament hopes hanging by a thread. Meanwhile, Michigan State, ranked No. 15, presents a formidable challenge. A win would not only give Ohio State a crucial boost but also help the Big Ten maintain its strong showing in the latest bracket projections.
Other teams like USC and Indiana are also in the mix, with USC slipping to "First Four Out" status after a surprising loss to Oregon despite the return of key player Chad Baker-Mazara. Indiana's struggles continue as well, dropping to "Next Four Out" due to its lackluster performance in critical quadrants. These developments highlight the intense competition and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
For sports fans, this game exemplifies the high stakes of college basketball's postseason picture. With just a few games left in the regular season, every contest can swing a team's fate. Ohio State's battle against Michigan State is not just a conference rivalry; it's a potential turning point that could determine whether the Buckeyes secure a spot in March Madness for the first time since 2022.
The broader implications of Sunday's game extend beyond Ohio State and Michigan State, as the Big Ten conference aims to maximize its bids. With teams like UCLA already securing strong victories, the conference is under pressure to maintain its competitive edge. The outcome of this clash could also influence how the rest of the season unfolds, setting the stage for an exciting finish to the regular season and a highly anticipated tournament.
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/22/2026