Bracketology: Duke surges to No. 1 overall seed in NCAA Tournament projection, UConn returns to top line
CBS Sports
by
David Cobb
February 22, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Duke has rocketed to the No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology following a dominant 68-63 win over previously top-ranked Michigan. The Wolverines, despite maintaining their lead in key metrics like NET and KenPom rankings, dropped to No. 2 after Saturday's tightly contested neutral-site loss. Duke's impressive resume includes 13 Quad 1 wins, which now surpasses Michigan's total of nine, making the Blue Devils a strong contender for the top spot heading into the final week of February.
Arizona solidified its position as the No. 3 overall seed with an impressive road victory at Houston. The Wildcats' 25-2 record and conference dominance have them in prime position, though they would likely need a stumble from Michigan or Duke to climb higher. Meanwhile, UConn rounded out the top-four seeds after securing a crucial Quad 1 win at Villanova, capitalizing on losses by Houston and Iowa State.
The selection committee's logic remains a key factor in these rankings. As highlighted by committee chair Keith Gill, head-to-head results can significantly influence seeding decisions. For example, Michigan's loss to Duke shifted the narrative, even though Michigan still leads in metrics like Wins Above Bubble (WAB). This dynamic underscores the importance of both performance and timing as teams approach the NCAA Tournament.
Elsewhere, Florida continues to make noise in its pursuit of a No. 2 seed. The Gators' seven-game winning streak and strong KenPom ranking have them close behind Illinois, which has stumbled slightly with three overtime losses in its last five games. Meanwhile, Kansas remains a contender for the final No. 3 spot despite its high-profile home loss to Cincinnati.
These developments matter to sports fans as they reflect the intense competition and strategic nuances of college basketball's postseason. With just over a week left before selection Sunday, every game carries significant weight in determining the bracket's shape. Teams like Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and UConn are at the forefront, but others like Florida and Kansas are poised to make waves with strong performances in their remaining matchups
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/22/2026