Bracketology: Michigan State slips in 2026 NCAA Tournament projection, Wisconsin poised to continue to rise
CBS Sports
by
David Cobb
February 14, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Wisconsin is emerging as a formidable force in the Big Ten, solidifying its position as a top-tier contender in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The Badgers' dominant 92-71 win over Michigan State on Friday night further cemented their reputation as a team capable of challenging even the highest-seeded opponents. This victory dropped the Spartans from a No. 3 seed to a No. 4 in the CBS Sports Bracketology model, highlighting Wisconsin's rapid rise and potential to climb even higher with additional upsets.
Wisconsin's offensive transformation has been key to their success this season. The team's ability to shoot 15 or more 3-pointers in five games this season, including a commanding 21-point drubbing of Michigan State, showcases their improved pace and outside shooting. The guard duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell has been exceptional, combining for 53 points against the Spartans and ranking among the top scorers in the Big Ten. This offensive prowess makes Wisconsin a daunting second-round opponent for any well-seeded team.
The Badgers' resume is bolstered by their marquee victories over Michigan State, Illinois, and Michigan, all of which came in games where they hit at least 15 three-pointers. Despite a shaky start to the season that included losses to TCU, Nebraska, and Villanova, Wisconsin has turned things around. Their strong performance in Quadrant 3 and 4 games, along with a No. 25 ranking in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), positions them as serious contenders for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament.
However, Michigan State's recent struggles have stalled their momentum. After starting the season 19-2, the Spartans have lost three of their last four games and dropped to a No. 4 seed in the Bracketology model. Their late-season performance will be crucial in determining whether they can reclaim a higher seeding, as Tom Izzo's teams are notoriously resilient in tournament play.
This matchup between Wisconsin and Michigan State highlights the competitive landscape of the Big Ten and the unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin's rise and
Verticals
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/14/2026