Can China rely on domestic oil after Iran, Venezuela shocks?
Deutsche Welle
February 15, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
China’s energy security is under growing strain as US actions against Iran and Venezuela disrupt key oil supplies. With 20% of its imported oil coming from Iran and another 4-5% from Venezuela, China faces a critical test to rely on domestic production or alternative sources. While President Xi Jinping has pushed for increased exploration and refining capacity through initiatives like the Seven-Year Action Plan, domestic output has grown only modestly—from 3.8 million barrels per day in 2018 to around 4.32 million in 2023. Experts warn that further production growth is unlikely to be exponential, as aging oil fields and challenges in discovering new reserves limit China’s ability to boost output significantly.
China’s reliance on the narrow Malacca Strait for most of its oil imports makes it vulnerable to external disruptions. US naval presence and recent seizures of Venezuelan oil tankers have added pressure, while Iran’s discounted crude oil deals with China have partially mitigated losses but remain uncertain due to Western sanctions. To address these risks, Beijing has accelerated the expansion of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), though domestic production remains insufficient to fill potential gaps.
The situation highlights the fragility of China’s energy balance and its growing dependence on imports from politically unstable regions. With limited room for domestic production growth and reliance on high-risk transit routes, China must navigate a complex geopolitical landscape to secure its energy future. The stakes are high not just for China but for global markets, as any significant disruption in Chinese oil supplies could ripple through international energy prices and global economic stability.
This issue underscores the delicate interplay between energy security, geopolitics, and economic growth, making it a critical concern for readers interested in global affairs and energy policy.
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Originally published on Deutsche Welle on 2/15/2026