Could the US unlock China’s rare earths grip with AI and quantum computing?
South China Morning Post
by Jevans NyabiageFebruary 15, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The United States could potentially challenge China’s dominance in rare earth minerals by leveraging advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing to develop synthetic substitutes or alloys. According to Jack Hidary, CEO of SandboxAQ, a spin-off from Alphabet, these innovations could drastically reduce the time needed to secure critical materials—from decades to just a few years. This approach aims to bypass the traditional slow process of establishing new mines and mitigate the geopolitical risks tied to China’s near-monopoly on rare earth production.
China currently controls most of the world’s rare earth mining and nearly 90% of processing capacity, giving it significant leverage in global supply chains. Western nations have been racing to build independent supply chains but face challenges in breaking China’s stranglehold. The article highlights that while technical advancements are promising, they may not be sufficient on their own to offset China’s structural advantages.
The difficulty lies in transitioning from laboratory breakthroughs to large-scale industrial processing—a realm where Beijing has excelled over decades. China’s dominance stems from its willingness to take on the environmental and health risks of rare earth processing, which Western countries have largely avoided due to the hazardous nature of these activities.
As geopolitical tensions rise, China has tightened control over rare earth exports through targeted bans and restrictions on certain heavy rare earth elements. This strategic move underscores the high stakes involved in the global race for critical minerals. While AI and quantum computing offer new pathways to reduce dependence on China, experts caution that overcoming the scale and complexity of China’s industry will require more than just technological breakthroughs.
In summary, while AI and quantum computing hold promise for disrupting China’s rare earth dominance, the path forward is fraught with challenges. The outcome of this technological and geopolitical struggle will have far-reaching implications for global industries reliant on these materials.
Verticals
worldasia
Originally published on South China Morning Post on 2/15/2026