Cuba is quickly nearing a point of no return as the U.S. weaponizes its Venezuelan oil supplies

Fortune

by Jordan Blum

February 20, 2026

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The Trump administration’s embargo on Cuba, which has cut off 75% of the island’s crude oil supplies, is pushing the nation toward a critical juncture amid severe fuel shortages and blackouts. With the U.S. having seized control of Venezuelan oil production following its ousting of President Nicolás Maduro, analysts warn that Cuba could be the next “domino” to fall under economic pressure. The situation has reached a boiling point as Cuba’s limited reserves dwindle, leaving the nation reliant on outdated infrastructure and struggling to maintain basic services. Cuba typically imports 75% of its oil from Venezuela and Mexico, but both sources have been severed due to U.S. actions. While Russia has pledged to send oil tanker shipments, there is uncertainty about how this will unfold. The U.S. has already seized tankers bound for Venezuela, raising the possibility of similar action against Russian vessels heading to Cuba. This could escalate tensions between the U.S. and Russia, as noted by Skip York of Rice University’s Baker Institute. The stakes are high for Cuba, which relies heavily on oil not just for transportation but also for its electric grid. With limited natural gas and renewable energy resources, Cuba is increasingly vulnerable to the whims of international geopolitics. The Trump administration has argued that the embargo is necessary to hold Cuba accountable for alleged support of regional instability and terrorism. For businesses, this situation highlights the risks of operating in regions where political and economic tensions are high. The U.S. strategy of weaponizing energy supplies could set a precedent for using tariffs and sanctions as tools of coercion, impacting global markets and international relations. As Cuba teeters on the brink, the potential for conflict—and its ripple effects on business—

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Originally published on Fortune on 2/20/2026