Cuba Isn’t Headed for Collapse

Foreign Policy

by James Bloodworth

February 23, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Cuba is currently experiencing its worst economic crisis since the early 1990s, with lingering effects from the COVID-19 pandemic impacting tourism, high inflation rates, and a massive exodus of nearly one million Cubans since 2021. The island’s proximity to the United States has shaped both the U.S. embargo and migration as a safety valve for the government. While the Cuban Revolution once symbolized resistance, today it is more about managing decline amidst widespread hardship. The economic situation has worsened due to the loss of Venezuelan oil subsidies, which had been Havana’s primary external lifeline since the Soviet Union’s collapse. This has led to severe shortages and prolonged blackouts, prompting foreign governments to advise their citizens against nonessential travel to Cuba. U.S. sanctions have intensified, with recent restrictions on Cuban oil imports described as extreme economic coercion by UN experts. Cuba frames its struggles as a patriotic sacrifice in the face of U.S. aggression, using a siege mentality to justify hardships. While this narrative provides political cover for Havana’s failures, it also reflects the reality of decades of economic pressure from Washington.

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Originally published on Foreign Policy on 2/23/2026