Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran?

Foreign Policy

by Ravi Agrawal

March 2, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The article explores the implications of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death on Iran's ability to continue its conflict with Israel and the United States. Despite losing its Supreme Leader, Iran has shown resilience by launching missile attacks and maintaining a multi-layered command structure that operates independently of a single leader. Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran and the Middle East, highlights how Iran’s Islamic Republic is designed to survive even after significant leadership losses, with various institutions and operational leaders stepping in to manage the war effort. The article delves into Iran's complex political system, emphasizing that while Khamenei was a central figure, his removal has not significantly disrupted Iran’s operations. Key players such as national security advisor Ali Larijani, speaker of parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are taking charge, ensuring continuity in Iran's strategy. Additionally, Iran's "deep state" – comprising bureaucrats, military leaders, and clerics – is playing a critical role in managing the conflict. The piece also examines the potential succession process for Khamenei, noting that Iran may appoint a new leader to maintain stability and signal continuity to its population and regional followers. However, it’s unclear who will emerge as the next Supreme Leader or how long the transition process will take. The article underscores the importance of understanding Iran's decentralized system in navigating ongoing conflicts with Israel and the United States. For readers interested in politics and international relations, this analysis provides valuable insights into Iran's ability to sustain its operations despite significant leadership changes. It highlights the complexities of Iran's political structure and its determination to continue confronting external adversaries, even as it grapples with internal challenges. The article ultimately raises questions about whether the U.S. and Israel’s strategy will succeed in weakening Iran or if it will only prolong the conflict, making it a crucial read for anyone following Middle Eastern affairs.

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Originally published on Foreign Policy on 3/2/2026