Everything can be a bet now: The rise and risks of prediction markets
Phys.org
February 26, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Prediction markets have surged in popularity, generating over US$13 billion monthly through platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi. These markets allow users to bet on a variety of outcomes, from political events to scientific discoveries, creating a unique intersection of gambling, data analysis, and public discourse. While they offer a fascinating glimpse into collective decision-making and probabilistic thinking, their rise has also sparked debates about their impact on science, politics, and society at large.
These markets operate by allowing participants to buy and sell shares representing the outcome of specific events, often phrased as "yes" or "no" questions. For example, a market might ask whether a scientific breakthrough will occur within a certain timeframe, with shares increasing in value if the event happens and
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Originally published on Phys.org on 2/26/2026