Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
The Verge
February 20, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are revolutionizing how people bet on a wide range of events, from political outcomes to pop culture moments. These platforms allow users to wager on topics such as the number of tweets Elon Musk will post or the results of major elections. While their creators claim these markets offer unparalleled accuracy, they also raise questions about whether they function more like gambling sites or financial trading platforms. The lines between these categories are increasingly blurred, with some experts arguing that traditional distinctions between trading, speculating, and gambling are being erased.
The rise of prediction markets has sparked ethical concerns, particularly regarding insider trading and the potential misuse of sensitive information. For example, a new Polymarket account reportedly earned over $400,000 by betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. This highlights the risks of allowing users to bet on real-world events with significant consequences. Additionally, platforms like Kalshi have faced legal challenges, such as Nevada’s lawsuit to block their operations and Portugal’s decision to shut down Polymarket within its borders.
The integration of prediction markets into mainstream culture has also led to unusual partnerships and high-profile incidents. For instance, Polymarket hosted a popup “free grocery store”
Verticals
techconsumer-tech
Originally published on The Verge on 2/20/2026