Fed Research Finds Kalshi Markets Outperform Wall Street Surveys
The Defiant
by Denis OmelchenkoFebruary 20, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
A new Federal Reserve study highlights the superior performance of Kalshi’s prediction markets compared to traditional Wall Street tools. The research found that Kalshi’s forecasts for key economic indicators like the federal funds rate and CPI outperformed both fed funds futures and professional forecasters, offering statistically significant improvements in accuracy and speed. This marks a significant advancement in financial forecasting, particularly in the realm of decentralized finance (DeFi) and cryptocurrency markets.
The study, published on February 18, analyzed how Kalshi’s platform responded to macroeconomic and financial news, revealing that it captures shifts in market expectations more quickly than traditional surveys. Unlike conventional methods that rely on expert opinions or futures markets, Kalshi aggregates crowd wisdom through its decentralized marketplace, enabling real-time insights into market sentiment. This approach not only accelerates the detection of economic changes but also often predicts them with greater precision.
For crypto enthusiasts and DeFi investors, this development is particularly relevant. Prediction markets like Kalshi provide a unique advantage by allowing participants to make informed decisions based on aggregated crowd intelligence. In an industry where rapid decision-making can mean the difference between profit and loss, Kalshi’s ability to outpace traditional tools offers a valuable edge. As the study underscores, such innovations are reshaping how financial professionals and institutions approach forecasting, making them indispensable in today’s fast-paced markets.
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Originally published on The Defiant on 2/20/2026