For Sacramento State, visions of football glory clouded in fuzzy math - Los Angeles Times

Los Angeles Times

by Bill Shaikin

February 24, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Sacramento State’s decision to join the Mid-American Conference (MAC) in football has sparked excitement and debate. The university claims that this move will bring a $975 million economic impact over five years, but experts question the validity of these figures. The projection heavily relies on an outdated metric called advertising value equivalency (AVE), which calculates the perceived value of media exposure. However, modern sports economists argue that AVE is flawed and does not accurately measure real-world economic benefits. The AVE metric was central to Collegiate Consulting’s study, which Sacramento State cited to support its $675 million broadcast-related economic impact claim. Critics, including sports economics professor Victor Matheson, point out that AVE overestimates value by treating mere television exposure as equivalent to targeted advertising campaigns. For instance, appearing on ESPN does not guarantee increased sponsorships or ticket sales without additional engagement. Modern metrics focus on tracking specific outcomes, such as how many viewers take action after seeing an advertisement or promotion. Sacramento State’s reliance on outdated methods has raised doubts about the feasibility of its economic projections. While the university hopes to boost revenue through corporate partnerships and ticket sales, experts suggest that simply being on TV does not translate directly into financial gains. The controversy highlights the challenges universities face when leveraging sports for economic growth. Without concrete evidence linking media exposure to tangible revenue, Sacramento State’s claims remain uncertain. This story underscores the importance of accurate data in evaluating the potential benefits of athletic decisions, offering valuable insights for readers interested in sports economics and higher education.

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Originally published on Los Angeles Times on 2/24/2026