Four Scenarios for a Postwar Iran

Foreign Policy

by Marc Lynch

February 20, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

A potential U.S. war with Iran is anticipated to avoid a prolonged occupation, following Trump's strategy of targeting key leaders and repressive apparatuses while minimizing long-term military presence. This approach aligns with past actions in Venezuela, where Maduro was captured, and Lebanon, where Nasrallah faced a strike, suggesting a focus on quick, decisive moves rather than extended conflicts. Iran, aware of such tactics from previous U.S. operations, has fortified its defenses and mobilized security forces after suppressing internal protests. Tehran is unlikely to be caught off guard, having learned from past mistakes and anticipating similar strategies. The article highlights the U.S. military buildup in the Gulf, focusing on aircraft carriers and support equipment rather than ground forces for an invasion. This reflects Trump's emphasis on avoiding another Iraq-style occupation, which he has repeatedly criticized as a "big fat mistake." The U.S. is likely to employ surgical strikes, targeting top Iranian leaders like Khamenei and members of the IRGC, similar to how Soleimani was killed in 2020. Iran's anticipation of such an attack has led to heightened security measures, including the rooting out of suspected Israeli intelligence assets. This internal purge, while effective in disrupting enemy networks, has also likely ensnared innocent individuals. The success of Israel's recent efforts in targeting senior Iranian officials underscores the vulnerabilities within Iran's leadership and security structures. The broader implications of a U.S.-Iran conflict are significant for regional stability and international relations. A quick, targeted approach by the U.S., followed by Iran's internal fallout, could reshape the political landscape in the Middle East. This scenario matters to readers interested in politics as it reflects shifts in U.S. foreign policy toward surgical strikes over prolonged occupations and highlights the complexities of modern conflict dynamics.

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Originally published on Foreign Policy on 2/20/2026