From niche to $3 billion run rate: prediction markets eye $10 billion future, Citizens says

CoinDesk

by Will Canny

February 24, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Prediction markets are rapidly evolving from niche betting platforms into a significant asset class with a projected annual revenue of $10 billion by 2030, according to a report by U.S. bank Citizens. This growth is driven by increasing trading volumes, more sophisticated market structures, and early institutional engagement. Once seen primarily as gambling platforms, prediction markets now offer a way for investors to hedge specific event risks, such as political or economic outcomes, with greater precision. Leading players like Kalshi and Polymarket have established themselves as key players in this emerging ecosystem. These platforms allow users to trade contracts based on the likelihood of real-world events, ranging from elections to macroeconomic developments. The shift toward institutional involvement is evident, with institutions beginning to integrate these markets through data partnerships, liquidity provision, and regulatory compliance. The report highlights that January trading volumes surged by over 40% compared to December, despite expectations of a slowdown post-football season. This growth has been fueled not just by sports but also by macroeconomic and political events, aligning more closely with institutional investment interests. Prediction markets provide unique benefits, enabling investors to isolate specific risks without relying on broader market proxies like index futures or options. Citizens analysts predict that annual industry revenue could reach $10 billion by 2030, driven not only by transaction volumes but also by the expansion of data-driven services and research in this space. As institutional participation increases, prediction markets are expected to further evolve into a mainstream financial tool, offering new opportunities for both retail and professional investors. For crypto enthusiasts, this development underscores the broader potential of blockchain-based financial instruments beyond traditional cryptocurrencies. Prediction markets exemplify how digital assets can disrupt traditional finance by creating more efficient and targeted risk management tools, making them an area of keen interest for those following the intersection of crypto and traditional markets.

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Originally published on CoinDesk on 2/24/2026