Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Calculate AI's Contribution To U.S. Growth May Be Basically Zero

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by msmash

February 23, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase have released reports challenging the notion that AI spending has been a major driver of U.S. economic growth. Their analysis suggests that the direct contribution of AI to GDP growth may be significantly overstated, possibly even close to zero. This contradicts earlier claims from Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and Washington thatAI investment was single-handedly propping up the economy. The key issue revolves around how GDP accounts for imported components. Since most AI data center costs—such as computer chips and hardware—are manufactured in Asia, these expenses are subtracted from U.S. domestic output because they benefit foreign economies. Joseph Politano of Apricitas Economics estimates that AI's actual contribution to the 2.2% U.S. growth projected for 2025 is just 0.2 percentage points. Even Hannah Rubinton of the St. Louis Fed, who previously attributed 39% of growth to AI-related business spending, acknowledges this figure likely represents an upper limit. This shift in perspective highlights the need to reevaluate how AI's economic impact is measured. While AI investment may influence long-term productivity and innovation, its direct contribution to current GDP growth appears minimal. For tech enthusiasts and investors, this means the narrative of AI "propping up" the economy may be overstated, potentially altering expectations about its immediate economic benefits. This revised understanding matters because it dispels the myth that AI alone is driving U.S. economic growth. While AI adoption continues to shape industries like healthcare, finance, and manufacturing, its direct impact on GDP remains negligible compared to other factors such as labor markets or consumer spending. For readers interested in tech and economics, this insight underscores the importance of nuanced analysis when assessing AI's role in modern economies. In summary, while AI is a transformative technology with long-term potential, its current contribution to U.S. economic growth appears to be much smaller than previously claimed. This realization challenges widely held assumptions about AI's impact on the economy and highlights the complexity of measuring technological contributions to GDP.

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Originally published on Slashdot on 2/23/2026