Goldman Sachs says U.S. consumers are stuck with higher prices even after Supreme Court ruling opens door to $180 billion in tariff refunds

Fortune

by Sasha Rogelberg

February 23, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling striking down President Trump’s tariffs has opened a $180 billion opportunity for companies to seek refunds but offers little relief for consumers. While the ruling allows importers to recoup tariff costs, Goldman Sachs economists warn that prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the near term. Tariffs have contributed to stubborn inflation and reduced consumer confidence, with 2025 seeing some of the lowest levels in over a decade. Despite the potential for refunds, companies are likely to keep prices high as they navigate ongoing trade uncertainties. The decision has also prompted new tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows temporary import taxes to address economic deficits. While these tariffs may adjust tax rates modestly, analysts predict only a minor reduction in overall levies. The Trump administration’s use of Section 301 for retaliatory tariffs further complicates trade dynamics, though Goldman Sachs notes that peak tariff rates are unlikely to exceed 15%. This stability suggests that inflationary pressures from tariffs will remain elevated, with prices continuing to rise. Consumers face an uphill battle as companies absorb most of the tariff costs. Data shows nearly 90% of tariffs are passed down to businesses and consumers, leaving households to bear the brunt. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that average household expenses could rise by $600 to $800 annually due to tariffs, even with refunds available for some companies. This financial burden underscores how trade policies continue to impact everyday spending. The ruling’s lack of clarity on refund processes complicates matters further, leaving importers and consumers uncertain about how to proceed. While the Supreme Court’s decision is

Verticals

businessfinance

Originally published on Fortune on 2/23/2026