Heavy Losses Make Russia Unlikely to Launch Major New Offensive – Bloomberg - The Moscow Times
Moscow Times
February 25, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine are significantly undermining Russia's ability to launch a major new offensive in the near future. Western officials and military analysts have revealed that Russia's monthly casualties now exceed its recruitment numbers for three consecutive months, raising concerns about potential forced mobilization. This trend, coupled with economic strain and rising political opposition, suggests Moscow is increasingly stretched thin on both the battlefield and at home.
The situation has been further complicated by Russia's reliance on foreign nationals to bolster its ranks, with thousands recruited from countries like North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Cuba. However, this strategy has sparked protests from some governments, who claim their citizens were misled or pressured into joining Russian forces. South Africa, for instance, is negotiating the return of its citizens who ended up fighting in Ukraine. These recruitment challenges have forced Russia to scale back its overseas efforts, leaving gaps in its military capabilities.
Domestically, the war's human cost is becoming increasingly evident. Ethnic and regional disparities in casualties are creating divisions within Russia, with poorer rural regions bearing a disproportionate share of losses. This has begun to fracture political support, particularly in urban areas where recruitment drives now focus on replenishing ranks. The Kremlin's growing reliance on foreign troops and its inability to sustain consistent battlefield gains have further eroded its strategic position.
Meanwhile, external factors are also complicating Russia's military operations
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Originally published on Moscow Times on 2/25/2026