IBM’s rout, 'ghost' GDP: Why AI doom loop may be just a 'scary bedtime story'
Times of India
by TOI TECH DESKFebruary 24, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The article discusses how fears of an AI-driven economic crisis led to a significant drop in IBM’s stock price after Anthropic claimed its Claude Code AI could modernize COBOL systems, which are critical for banking and government operations. This news sparked concerns about a "Ghost GDP" scenario, where AI replaces white-collar jobs en masse by 2028, potentially causing widespread unemployment and economic collapse.
However, many experts disagree with this doomsday timeline, arguing that the impact of AI will unfold more gradually. Current data shows that while 41% of American workers have used generative AI at work by late 2025, only a small fraction use it daily or for fully autonomous workflows. The immediate threat to jobs is overstated, as most AI adoption is still limited to task-level assistance rather than full automation.
The article critiques Citrini Research’s "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" report for lacking a clear macroeconomic model explaining how widespread job losses would lead to systemic economic collapse. Analysts like Noah Smith suggest that the market reaction was more about sentiment and panic selling, driven by an evocative narrative rather than a genuine discovery of an impending crisis.
While AI will undoubtedly reshape many white-collar jobs over time, the process is expected to be uneven and slower, allowing policymakers to manage disruptions through regulation and strategic planning. The key takeaway is that while AI poses significant risks, it’s unlikely to trigger an imminent macroeconomic collapse, making fears of a "Ghost GDP" crisis seem more like a cautionary tale than reality.
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Originally published on Times of India on 2/24/2026