Indiana vs. Michigan State odds, prediction: 2026 college basketball picks for March 1 from advanced model
CBS Sports
by
Ross Kelly
March 1, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The highly anticipated college basketball clash between Indiana and Michigan State is set for Sunday, with the Spartans holding a slight edge in the latest odds. This Big Ten showdown features two storied programs, as No. 13 Michigan State (23-5, 13-4 Big Ten) faces Indiana (17-11, 8-9 Big Ten) at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Ind. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. Michigan State enters the game with momentum, having won three straight contests, including a recent victory over Purdue. Meanwhile, Indiana has struggled recently, dropping three consecutive games, including a loss to Northwestern.
The Spartans are favored by 2.5 points in this matchup, with a money line of -161 and an over/under total of 144.5 points. Michigan State’s dominance in the series, having won 27 of 45 all-time meetings, adds to their confidence. The teams last met on January 13, where MSU secured an 81-60 victory at home. This game is a pivotal one for both programs, as Michigan State aims to extend its winning streak and solidify its position in the Big Ten standings.
SportsLine’s advanced model has simulated this game 10,000 times, revealing that the Over (144.5 points) is expected to hit in 63.1% of cases. This projection is driven by Michigan State’s high-scoring performances against defensive struggles like Indiana’s, which allows over 72 points per game. The Spartans have consistently eclipsed the total in road games against similar opponents. Additionally, both teams are projected to feature multiple double-digit scorers, contributing to a combined point total of 149 in the model’s simulations.
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 3/1/2026