Is southern Yemen’s next phase being decided on the ground?
Al Jazeera
February 20, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Southern Yemen’s political landscape is increasingly shaped by security and military factors rather than political negotiations alone. Recent developments show that control over security and military command are critical to determining power dynamics, as any governmental or political arrangements must address these issues to ensure stability. The growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), key external players in Yemen’s conflict, has significantly impacted the balance of power and regional stability.
The southern governorates now feature a complex security structure, with various armed groups tied to state institutions or supported by external actors like the UAE. These include forces linked to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which dissolved in some areas but retains influence through redeployed units. In Aden, the temporary capital, the government faces challenges as former STC-affiliated groups have either disbanded, renamed, or shifted their focus, while long-standing local networks of power remain entrenched. Similar dynamics play out across Lahij, Abyan, Dhale, Shabwah, and Hadhramaut, where state authority varies and coordination between official forces and wartime groups remains uneven.
A key challenge for the government is integrating these disparate security formations into unified ministries of defense and interior. While efforts aim to centralize control, the process faces obstacles like differing funding sources, political loyalties, and fears of losing local influence among commanders. This integration appears slow and incremental, focusing on redeployment rather than decisive measures that could spark conflict. The government must navigate this delicate balance to assert authority without reigniting internal clashes, particularly amid ongoing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The situation in Yemen cannot be understood without considering its regional context. Saudi Arabia views Yemen as a strategic buffer against potential threats from Iran and other adversaries, pushing for a stable state along its southern border. The kingdom’s growing friction
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Originally published on Al Jazeera on 2/20/2026