It really looks like we’re about to bomb Iran again

Vox

February 19, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The U.S. military is conducting its largest buildup in the Middle East in decades, signaling a possible imminent strike on Iran. While diplomatic talks are ongoing in Geneva, some officials view them as inconsequential, with one dismissing progress as a "nothingburger" and suggesting a 90% chance of war. President Trump has yet to decide on military action but hinted at a decision within the next ten days. The scale of potential U.S. force is significant, including two aircraft carrier strike groups, nuclear submarines, and a massive deployment of airpower, enough for a multi-week engagement. The situation stems from Iran's nuclear program, which the U.S. wants to halt entirely, while Iran insists on its right to enrich uranium. Talks also touch on Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for regional proxies like Hezbollah. The administration is divided between seeking a deal and considering regime change in Tehran. Meanwhile, Israel supports military action, but Gulf states are cautious about retaliation, with some refusing U.S. use of their airspace. The conflict could escalate beyond previous operations, such as the brief June strikes led by Israel. This time, the U.S. would likely lead a more extensive campaign targeting nuclear and missile facilities or even attempting regime change. Iran’s military capabilities, though weakened, pose significant risks, including retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases and allies in the Gulf. Both sides appear overconfident in their ability to prevail. Legally, the administration is unlikely to seek congressional approval for limited actions but faces challenges justifying broader conflicts. Politically, this situation highlights Trump's aggressive approach to foreign policy, contrasting with his predecessors' caution. If war breaks out, it could reshape the region and global energy markets, given Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. The stakes are high, with potential for significant loss of life and long-term instability in the Middle East. This unfolding drama matters to readers interested in geopolitics as it raises questions about the limits of U.S. military power, the viability of diplomacy, and the

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Originally published on Vox on 2/19/2026