It’s beginning to feel a little like Sarajevo in June 1914
The Hill
by Harlan Ullman, opinion contributorFebruary 23, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The article draws a striking comparison between the potential U.S. military strike on Iran and the events leading up to World War I, particularly the assassination in Sarajevo in 1914. The author questions whether such an action could act as a modern-day trigger for a broader conflict, sparking fears of escalating tensions and wider regional instability. The piece highlights the historical parallels, suggesting that a 21st-century "Sarajevo moment" could have far-reaching consequences, not just between Iran and the U.S., but across global alliances.
The article delves into the geopolitical landscape, noting how the Middle East has long been a powder keg of competing interests. The U.S. has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran over issues like nuclear proliferation, regional influence, and support for groups like Hezbollah. However, the comparison to 1914 raises concerns about miscommunication, miscalculations, or unintended consequences that could spiral out of control. The author emphasizes the fragility of the situation, where even a limited strike could escalate into something far larger, involving multiple nations and factions.
The piece also explores the potential for a broader war, drawing parallels to how World War I began with a localized conflict but eventually engulfed Europe. It questions whether the U.S. or Iran has the political will or strategic foresight to avoid such an outcome. The article underscores the risks of military action in the region, where historical grievances, proxy wars, and ideological divides complicate an already volatile situation.
Ultimately, the article serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of conflating modern geopolitical tensions with historical precedents. It challenges readers to consider whether the U.S. strike on Iran could mark a turning point akin to Sarajevo, not just for the two nations involved but for global stability as a whole. For those interested in politics and international relations, this article provides a thought-provoking analysis of how past events might shape—or haunt—our present
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Originally published on The Hill on 2/23/2026