Michigan State vs. Purdue odds, prediction: 2026 college basketball picks for February 26 from proven model
CBS Sports
by
Daniel Kohn
February 26, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The highly anticipated matchup between the 13th-ranked Michigan State Spartans and the eighth-seeded Purdue Boilermakers on February 26th promises to be a pivotal game in determining the Big Ten Conference Tournament seeding. Both teams enter the contest with strong records, as Michigan State boasts a 22-5 overall record and a 12-4 conference mark, while Purdue also holds a 22-5 record and a 12-4 Big Ten standing. The Spartans are coming off a close 66-60 victory over Ohio State, showcasing their resilience on the road, where they’ve gone 4-3 this season. Meanwhile, Purdue secured a dominant 93-64 win against Indiana, continuing their impressive home performance record of 12-3 in Mackey Arena.
The game is expected to be competitive, with Purdue listed as a 7.5-point favorite and an over/under total of 142.5 points set by DraftKings Sportsbook. This betting line reflects both teams’ strengths: Michigan State’s ability to compete against ranked opponents and Purdue’s formidable home-court advantage. The matchup also carries historical significance, as Purdue holds a significant edge in the all-time series, including a 47-18 record in games played at West Lafayette.
SportsLine’s Projection Model has simulated this game 10,000 times and predicts a high-scoring contest, with the over hitting in over 70% of its simulations. This projection aligns with recent trends, as six of Purdue’s last seven games and five of Michigan State’s last eight have seen the over/under reach expectations. The model also highlights key players for both teams: Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr., who is projected to score 14.3 points, and Purdue’s Braden Smith
Verticals
sports
Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/26/2026