Middle East: Using AI to stop dissent before it even starts
Deutsche Welle
February 24, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The Middle East is at the forefront of leveraging AI for conflict forecasting, with authoritarian regimes using advanced tools to suppress dissent before protests can even emerge. This technology, often sourced from China, allows governments to analyze vast amounts of data—such as media reports, economic indicators, and social demographics—to predict potential unrest. While the systems are not yet sophisticated enough to pinpoint specific events, they flag high-risk areas based on historical patterns. However, as AI capabilities improve, there is growing concern that these tools could be misused to target political dissidents preemptively.
The use of AI in conflict forecasting involves machine learning models trained on decades of data to identify subtle signs of instability. This approach can include factors like economic downturns, social unrest signals, and even mobile phone location data. Though the technology is still evolving, it raises ethical questions about its application by authoritarian regimes. Experts warn that while these tools could aid in resource allocation and humanitarian preparedness, their potential for abuse to stifle democratic expression is significant.
For instance, Christopher Rauh of Cambridge University highlights the risk of bad actors using AI predictions to crack down on dissent. His organization, ConflictForecast, avoids publishing protest forecasts precisely because such data could enable authoritarian suppression. As AI models become more refined, the balance between national security and individual freedoms becomes increasingly delicate. The Middle East's adoption of these tools underscores a broader global debate about the ethical use of AI in governance.
Ultimately, the integration of AI into conflict prevention strategies reflects both opportunities and challenges.
Verticals
worldpolitics
Originally published on Deutsche Welle on 2/24/2026