Nobody believed that Putin would invade Ukraine. Four years on, has Europe learned from the failures of 2022?
The Guardian World
by Shaun WalkerFebruary 25, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Tuesday marks the fourth anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a moment that reshaped the course of European history. The article reflects on how Western intelligence was misread in the days leading up to the invasion, even within Kyiv, and the costly consequences of those failures. On February 23, 2022, the author received an unequivocal warning from an intelligence source about the impending attack, which was later confirmed when Russian forces launched their assault on Ukraine the next morning. This hindsight reveals a stark lesson: the dangers of underestimating authoritarian leaders and the importance of heeding warnings that could prevent catastrophic outcomes.
The narrative highlights how Western institutions, including journalists and policymakers, were caught off guard by the invasion. For instance, Emma Graham-Harrison, a colleague of the author, was en route to Mariupol when she received similar intel. She wisely decided to return to Kyiv, avoiding being trapped in a city that became one of the war’s bloodiest battlegrounds. This anecdote underscores how critical it is to act on intelligence, even when it seems contradictory or hard to believe.
The article serves as a cautionary tale for the future, emphasizing the need for better analysis and preparedness in the face of potential threats. It also raises questions about whether Europe has truly learned from these mistakes. Four years later, the ongoing conflict continues to impact global security and stability, reminding the world that underestimating adversarial leaders can have dire consequences.
Ultimately, this reflection is a reminder of how pivotal intelligence was—and remains—in shaping the trajectory of international events. The lessons from 2022 are as relevant today as they were four years ago, offering valuable insights for those seeking to understand and navigate the complexities of global politics.
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Originally published on The Guardian World on 2/25/2026