Nvidia options are priced for a perfect earnings outlook. These are your smarter trades.
MarketWatch
by Lawrence G. McMillanFebruary 20, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is generating significant buzz as investors and traders closely monitor the company’s financial performance. With its earnings set to release on Feb 25 after market close, the options market has priced in expectations for a notable post-earnings move. Historically, Nvidia's stock has seen modest movements following earnings reports, with a median move of around 3.2% over the past decade. However, the at-the-money straddle expiring on Feb 27—a key indicator of expected volatility—currently suggests a much larger potential move of approximately 7%. This premium reflects heightened expectations for Nvidia’s stock to either surge or drop sharply following the earnings announcement.
The options market’s pricing indicates that traders are anticipating a significant event-driven reaction, which could be driven by factors such as strong revenue growth in AI or gaming sectors, or potential headwinds. While the median historical move has been modest, recent post-earnings moves have shown greater variability, including notable drops and gains. For instance, Nvidia’s stock fell 3.15% after one earnings report and rose 3.
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Originally published on MarketWatch on 2/20/2026