Oil markets are bracing for $100 barrels and a redux of a 1970s-era crisis but ‘three times the scale,’ analyst warns

Fortune

by Sasha Rogelberg

March 2, 2026

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Oil markets are on high alert as tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran escalate, raising fears of a severe oil crisis reminiscent of the 1970s but potentially three times worse in scale. The strike on Iran has disrupted key trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about 20% of global oil exports—equivalent to roughly 20 million barrels per day. Shipping giants like Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company have halted operations in the region, effectively shutting down critical shipping corridors. Analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil prices could surge above $100 per barrel, causing widespread economic disruption. The situation echoes the 1973 oil shock, where Arab nations imposed an embargo during the Yom Kippur War, leading to a nearly 40% increase in U.S. gas prices and long lines at pumps. However, today’s scenario is far more severe due to higher global oil demand and reliance on Middle East exports. Even a partial reduction in trade through the Strait of Hormuz could send prices to $90-$100 per barrel, according to Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee. This would exacerbate inflationary pressures, especially as U.S. retail gas prices are already expected to rise by 13 cents per gallon for every $20 increase in oil prices. The economic stakes are high. With the U.S. economy grappling with stagflation—a combination of slow growth and high inflation—any further spike in energy costs could strain household budgets and business operations. Gasoline prices, currently averaging $2.96 per gallon, may reach $3 by week’s end, up from $2.76 at the start of January. This would mirror the 1970s crisis but on a larger scale, given that global oil consumption has tripled since then. While some factors

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Originally published on Fortune on 3/2/2026