Opinion | The 2028 Democratic Presidential Contenders, Ranked by Nate Silver

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by Nate Silver and John Guida

February 20, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

The article explores Nate Silver’s analysis of potential Democratic presidential contenders for 2028, highlighting the early dynamics of the invisible primary as voting begins in the 2026 midterms. Silver participated in a fantasy-style draft with colleagues from FiveThirtyEight, where Gavin Newsom was selected first due to his strong polling numbers and momentum in prediction markets. While Silver acknowledges Newsom’s appeal, he notes that Democratic candidates often face challenges similar to past nominees like Kamala Harris. The article emphasizes the importance of early positioning for potential contenders as they engage in preliminary activities like forming campaign teams and visiting key states. The invisible primary is a critical phase where party insiders and donors signal support for certain candidates, shaping delegate momentum and media attention long before official campaigns begin. Silver’s fantasy draft also reveals other potential contenders beyond Newsom and Harris, offering insight into the broader field of Democratic hopefuls. The article underscores how this early groundwork influences voter perception and sets the stage for future competition. This analysis matters to readers interested in understanding the strategic dynamics of political campaigns. By examining early moves and contender positioning, Silver’s insights help demystify the often opaque process of candidate selection within the Democratic Party. His perspective provides a roadmap for tracking

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Originally published on NYT Homepage on 2/20/2026