Opinion | Trump Is Banking on Iranian Weakness. That’s a Mistake.

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by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh

February 21, 2026

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The article discusses Iran's response to recent nationwide protests, highlighting how the regime initially hesitated but ultimately demonstrated its strength through a violent crackdown. Following a 12-day conflict with the U.S. and Israel that targeted Iran's nuclear facilities and military personnel, the Islamic Republic faced internal turmoil. However, when protests erupted in late December due to economic instability and currency collapse, Iran's leaders showed signs of conciliation at first. This approach mirrored historical patterns, such as during the 1979 revolution, where public demonstrations grew after a perceived lack of regime resolve. By January, however, the situation shifted dramatically. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and hardline figures like Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei called for no tolerance toward protesters, leading to a brutal crackdown. According to reports, at least 7,008 were killed and tens of thousands arrested by mid-February. The regime also expanded its targeting of reformist factions, signaling a broader effort to suppress dissent. The Trump administration is leveraging this context in ongoing negotiations with Tehran, deploying military forces to the region as a show of strength. The White House likely believes that Iran's internal instability and recent displays of force will weaken its position, giving the U.S. leverage in talks. However, the regime's resolute response suggests it remains defiant and capable of maintaining control despite external pressures. This dynamic is crucial for understanding broader Middle East politics and the delicate balance of power between Iran, the U.S., and Israel. The outcome of these negotiations could shape regional stability and influence global energy markets. For readers interested in international relations and geopolitical strategy, this article provides valuable insights into the complexities of Iran's internal dynamics and its implications for U.S.-Iran relations.

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Originally published on NYT Homepage on 2/21/2026