Opinion | US war on Iran isn’t likely to go as planned
South China Morning Post
by Sameed BashaMarch 3, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The article discusses how the U.S. has historically struggled in asymmetric wars, where enemies use unconventional tactics to counter conventional forces. Cases like Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen highlight Washington's underestimation of adversaries employing such strategies. The piece introduces Iran as a significant example, having refined these tactics over decades to challenge U.S. dominance without direct confrontation.
A key illustration is the Millennium Challenge 2002 war game, where a "red team" simulating an adversary successfully sank a U.S. aircraft carrier and achieved early success using asymmetric methods. Despite this, the simulation was paused and altered to ensure a U.S. victory, reflecting the military's tendency to favor conventional strategies despite evidence of their ineffectiveness against unconventional foes.
The article underscores that Iran's use of modern tools like ballistic missiles and drones has exposed vulnerabilities in U.S. air defenses, challenging long-held assumptions about American military superiority. This highlights the need for the U.S. to adapt its doctrines and recognize the limitations of relying solely on conventional force, as demonstrated by past conflicts and recent developments in asymmetric warfare.
This matters because it reveals critical weaknesses in U.S. military strategies and underscores the growing complexity of modern conflict. Understanding these challenges is essential for readers interested in global security and the evolving nature of warfare, as Iran's capabilities demonstrate the limitations of traditional military approaches against sophisticated adversaries.
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Originally published on South China Morning Post on 3/3/2026