Pakistan semi-final scenario: What Sri Lanka exit means for their chances
Times of India
by TOI SPORTS DESKFebruary 26, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
New Zealand's decisive 61-run victory over Sri Lanka in Colombo has not only eliminated the co-hosts from the T20 World Cup but also reshaped the race for the final semi-final spot in Super Eights Group 2. With England already secured, Pakistan now holds a crucial chance to advance, provided they secure a big win against Sri Lanka and hope for an English victory over New Zealand in their upcoming match.
Sri Lanka's campaign came to an end as they fell short of chasing 169, finishing at 107/8 and exiting the tournament with one game still left. This defeat marked their fifth consecutive failure to reach the semi-finals since their 2014 title win. Meanwhile, New Zealand's net run rate surged to +3.050, positioning them strongly for qualification alongside England.
Pakistan's fate now hinges on two outcomes: England defeating New Zealand in Colombo and Pakistan securing a significant victory against Sri Lanka in Kandy. If New Zealand wins, they would qualify directly with five points, rendering Pakistan's final match irrelevant. However, if England emerges victorious, the race becomes more nuanced. Pakistan must then defeat Sri Lanka by approximately 20 runs to potentially tie on points with New Zealand and advance based on net run rate.
The current standings show England leading with six points, followed by New Zealand on three, Pakistan on one point with a negative net run rate of -0.461, and Sri Lanka at the bottom with zero points. The mathematical possibilities are tight: if England beats New Zealand by 50 runs, Pakistan would need to chase or defend around 170 in roughly 17.5 overs to surpass New Zealand's net run rate.
This high-stakes scenario underscores the intense competition and strategic importance of the remaining matches. With only one spot left for semi-final qualification, every run and wicket will matter as Pakistan fights to keep their World Cup hopes alive. The outcome of this closely contested group stage highlights the unpredictable nature of sports at the highest level, where a single match can redefine tournament trajectories.
For cricket enthusiasts, this drama adds another layer of excitement to the T20 World Cup, showcasing how even after significant defeats, the tournament remains unpredictable until the final ball is bowled. The stakes could not be higher for Pakistan, as their performance in the Super Eights will determine whether they can
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Originally published on Times of India on 2/26/2026