Poll: Talarico, Paxton hold slim edge heading into Tuesday primary
The Hill
by Max RegoMarch 2, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
A new Emerson College poll reveals a narrow lead for Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in their respective Senate primary races as they head into Tuesday's election. Among likely Democratic voters, Talarico secured 52% support compared to Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D), who garnered 47%. On the Republican side, Paxton holds a slight edge over former District Judge George P. White with 51% versus 49%. These results highlight competitive races in both parties, with the potential for runoff elections if no candidate secures a majority.
For Talarico, this poll underscores his position as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, despite facing stiff competition from Crockett, a freshman state representative. The slim margin suggests that the race remains uncertain and could hinge on voter turnout and campaign momentum. Similarly, Paxton's lead comes amid challenges, including ongoing legal troubles stemming from federal charges he faces, which have cast doubt over his political future.
The poll results are particularly significant for Talarico, who is aiming to become Texas' first openly LGBTQ+ U.S. senator. His victory would mark a historic moment for the state's Democratic Party and could shift dynamics in the Senate if he goes on to win the general election against Republican candidates. Paxton, meanwhile, faces scrutiny over his legal issues, which may impact voter trust and his chances of securing the nomination.
These races are closely watched by political observers, as they reflect broader trends in Texas politics. The state's heavily contested primaries often serve as early indicators of electoral strategies and candidate viability for national elections. With both Talarico and Paxton holding single-digit leads, the outcome of these primaries could set a precedent for future campaigns, particularly in battleground states like Texas.
Overall, the poll highlights the high stakes of Tuesday's primary elections, with both candidates positioned to benefit or face setbacks based on voter preferences. The results underscore the importance of every vote in determining the direction of the Senate races and the political landscape in Texas.
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Originally published on The Hill on 3/2/2026