Rockets vs. Heat odds, prediction, spread, time: 2026 NBA picks for Saturday, Feb. 28 from proven model
CBS Sports
by
Daniel Kohn
February 28, 2026
AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary
The Houston Rockets aim to extend their winning streak as they face the Miami Heat in an NBA matchup on Saturday, February 28. Houston enters the game with momentum, having secured a 113-108 victory over Orlando earlier in the week. Meanwhile, the Heat suffered a 124-117 loss to Philadelphia, hampered by key absences and inconsistent performance. With the Rockets (37-21) holding second place in the Southwest Division and boasting a strong road record of 17-14, they are slight favorites with a -3.5 point spread heading into the contest.
The matchup features significant context, including the Heat's historical dominance over the Rockets, having won nine out of their last ten encounters. However, the Rockets' recent form and depth on both ends of the court could give them an edge. Key players like Kevin Durant are expected to play a pivotal role, with the SportsLine Projection Model projecting him to average 26.8 points in this clash. The Heat, led by Tyler Herro's potential for high-scoring output, will rely on their home-court advantage and defensive intensity to counter Houston's offensive prowess.
Betting enthusiasts should note that the model predicts an over/under of 225.5 total points, with the Over having hit in five out of eight recent head-to-head games. The Rockets' balanced scoring approach and the Heat's high-paced style suggest a game that could exceed the projected total. Additionally, the model highlights a specific side of the spread that has performed exceptionally well over 50% of the time, offering valuable insight for those looking to make informed betting decisions.
This game matters because it showcases two teams with contrasting strengths: the Rockets' consistency and star power versus the Heat's home-court advantage and defensive grit. For sports fans and bettors alike, this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest with potential upsets and high-scoring moments. With both teams fighting for playoff positioning, every possession could
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Originally published on CBS Sports on 2/28/2026