Russia can keep fighting Ukraine war throughout 2026, says military thinktank

The Guardian World

by Dan Sabbagh Defence and security editor

February 24, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

A leading military thinktank has warned that Russia appears capable of continuing its invasion of Ukraine well into 2026, despite growing economic and manpower challenges. According to Bastian Giegerich, director general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), there is little evidence suggesting a significant decline in Moscow's ability to sustain the conflict for a fifth year. This assessment comes amid concerns over Russia's expanding missile and drone capabilities, whichpose an increasing threat to European security. The thinktank highlights that Russia's economic resilience has allowed it to maintain its war effort despite international sanctions. While some economic strain is evident, particularly in sectors reliant on foreign trade and technology, Moscow has managed to adapt by diversifying suppliers and investing in domestic production. Additionally, Russia's military spending remains high, with significant allocations for modernizing its armed forces and developing advanced weaponry. Another critical factor is Russia's internal stability. The country's leadership has shown a strong commitment to the war effort, with President Vladimir Putin consolidating power and suppressing dissent. This political unity, combined with a population that appears largely supportive of the conflict, ensures that Moscow can continue to mobilize resources and personnel for the foreseeable future. The thinktank also underscores the growing threat posed by Russia's missile and drone capabilities. Recent developments in these areas suggest that Russia is not only maintaining its military edge but also expanding its ability to project power beyond Ukraine. This could have far-reaching implications for European security, as it raises the specter of direct confrontation with NATO member states. For readers interested in global affairs, this analysis underscores the ongoing risks and uncertainties in Eastern Europe. The conflict's persistence not only threatens regional stability but also has broader implications for international relations and energy security. As Russia continues to demonstrate resilience, the world must remain vigilant to potential escalations and their impact on global peace and cooperation.

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Originally published on The Guardian World on 2/24/2026