Russia’s violation of NATO airspace surged 200% in 2025, a warning of what may be coming

Fortune

by Frederic Lemieux, The Conversation

February 19, 2026

AI-Generated Deep Dive Summary

Russia’s violation of NATO airspace has surged dramatically in recent years, with 2025 seeing a staggering 200% increase compared to the previous year. This sharp escalation marks a significant shift from isolated incidents to a sustained pattern of aggression, signaling heightened tensions between Russia and NATO member states. The violations have grown more severe and geographically widespread over time, raising concerns about escalating military confrontation. The trend began modestly in 2022 with four incidents, but by 2023, annual violations rose steadily, reaching six in 2024. However, the jump to 18 confirmed violations in 2025 was unprecedented, marking a dramatic shift in Russia’s approach. These incidents have also intensified in nature, moving from brief and low-intensity events like border skirmishes to high-severity actions such as deep incursions and coordinated drone swarms. This escalation matters for business because it threatens regional stability and could trigger increased military spending across NATO countries. The surge also underscores the potential for broader economic disruptions, including strained diplomatic relations, trade tensions, and heightened security risks in key European markets. For businesses operating in or near regions affected by these violations, the risk of operational disruption or geopolitical instability is growing.

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Originally published on Fortune on 2/19/2026