Scientists reveal best- and worst-case scenarios for a warming Antarctica
Phys.org
February 20, 2026
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Scientists have modeled the best- and worst-case scenarios for Antarctica’s future under climate change, revealing both hope and caution. The study highlights that while the continent is warming rapidly, significant global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could stabilize its ice sheets and prevent catastrophic consequences. However, if emissions continue unabated, the melting of Antarctic ice could lead to a dramatic rise in sea levels, reshaping coastal regions worldwide.
In the best-case scenario, limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would slow the melt of Antarctica’s ice sheets, preserving its stability and avoiding extreme sea-level rises by 2100. This outcome underscores the importance of aggressive emissions reduction to mitigate the risks posed by climate change in Antarctica.
The worst-case scenario paints a dire picture: if global temperatures rise by 4°C or more, the complete loss of Antarctic ice could occur within centuries, leading to a staggering 63-meter increase in sea levels over millennia. This would submerge coastal cities and disrupt global systems dependent on stable ocean currents.
Understanding these scenarios matters because Antarctica’s fate is intricately linked to Earth’s climate systems. Its melting ice sheets not only contribute to rising seas but also alter ocean circulation patterns, which regulate weather
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Originally published on Phys.org on 2/20/2026